If their change to raid stance is then sort of tied to diplomacy correctly, to prompt an active declaration of war, the AI shouldn´t do it, if they aren´t also willing to go to war. Imo raiding three times within 10 turns against the same faction should just start a war. They´d just lose armies and be completely oblivious that their raiding exposes the armies to be attacked. I´d be ok with that if the AI knew the implications of raiding, which I don´t think it does.
Crusader Kings 2 had a similar mechanic, wherein if another faction was raiding you(most often the vikings) that army would become set as an enemy for a short period of time so you could attack that army without it turning into a full blown war. If nothing else, you should be able to target armies in raid stance in your territory as if you were at war, without actually declaring war.
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